Market News

Last week the European Central Bank raised rates by 25bp, UK GDP grew 0.4% in July against expectations for no growth, and US CPI held at 3.4%, yet currencies stayed within their ranges. This week the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday 16 September, with markets pricing an 86% chance of a rise, and the Bank of England on Thursday 17 September, expected to hold with a potential 6-3 vote split. Every exchange rate quoted is a level from last week, not a current price.

US payrolls added 162,000 in August against a consensus Agility Forex publishes as around 56,000, with unemployment unchanged at 4.1% and June and July revised higher by a combined 55,000. The ECB decides on Thursday 10 September, with markets widely expecting a further 0.25%. UK GDP and US CPI follow on Friday 11 September, both on published consensus expectations rather than outcomes. No exchange rate of any kind is published in this week's commentary.

The Dollar was the strongest performer of the week. US core PCE held at 3.3% year on year and headline PCE rose to 3.7%, both published exactly, and the source finds little evidence of inflation moving quickly towards the 2% target. Sterling closed at around 1.3526, and the euro fell furthest, by just over 1%, a bound the source gives in words. Markets increased expectations of a September Federal Reserve rise, and the source publishes no new percentage.

Two central banks were repriced in the same week, in the same direction, and not to the same standard. The chance of another Bank of England rise before December fell to 63% from 84%, both published exactly. The chance of a Federal Reserve rise in September fell to approximately 38% from around 85% in July, both published as approximate values. Sterling reached a six-month high of 1.3675, the euro a three-month high of 1.1711. What moved, and how each figure was published.

US inflation eased to 3.4% year on year, retail sales fell 0.6% in July for the first monthly decline in nine months, and the market-implied probability of no change at this month's Fed meeting rose from 47% to 69%. Sterling reached a level last seen on 12 May. What moved, what was published as a bound rather than a figure, and what the week of 17 August holds.

The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July against expectations of an increase of around 80,000 to 87,000, and the two preceding months were revised down by a combined 103,000. Why the Dollar fell to its weakest level in several months, and what the week of 10 August holds.

Two central banks met and neither moved, yet the US Dollar still finished the week as the weakest of the three majors. Six policymakers voted for an immediate rate rise, Core PCE slowed to 0.1%, and GBP/USD had its strongest week in months.

Inflation risk returned this week as a jump in oil prices, fresh tariff threats and sticky inflation revived the prospect of rates staying higher for longer. The Dollar stayed supported, Sterling held on sticky UK CPI, and the Euro drifted, ahead of a rare week in which both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England decide. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex.

Sterling outperformed the major currencies as improving UK political sentiment turned from a headwind into a tailwind, lifting GBP/USD to a two-month high near 1.3550 and GBP/EUR above 1.18. Softer US inflation, with headline CPI at 3.5% and the first monthly fall since April 2020, pulled the Dollar lower. This week’s currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex, ahead of UK CPI and the ECB decision.

Geopolitics took control of the markets. Renewed US-Iran tensions and oil approaching 80 US Dollars a barrel sent investors back into the safe-haven US Dollar, reversing Sterling's early-week gains and leaving Cable in the familiar 1.33 to 1.34 range. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex, with US CPI the standout release ahead.

The US Dollar came under pressure after June Non-Farm Payrolls added just 57,000 jobs against 114,000 expected, pushing markets toward Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Sterling reached a one-year high against the Euro. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex.

Sir Keir Starmer's resignation opened the week, but the bigger story was a US Dollar leading every major in 2026 as US inflation rose above 4% and markets priced in more Federal Reserve tightening. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex, with Eurozone flash inflation and US Non-Farm Payrolls ahead.

A hawkish first FOMC under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lifted the US Dollar and left Sterling the weakest major, with GBP/USD down about 1.65%. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex, with flash PMIs and US Core PCE ahead.

Sterling held firm, the ECB raised rates to a 2.25% deposit rate, and a weaker Dollar lifted GBP/USD above 1.34. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex, with the Fed and Bank of England ahead.

US payrolls beat forecasts at 172k, Eurozone core inflation rose to 2.5%, and Middle East tensions lifted the Dollar. This week's currency market news for globally mobile families, from our partners at Agility Forex.