Weekly Market News, 1 September 2026: The Dollar Was the Strongest Performer as Core PCE Held at 3.3%
Currency moves rarely make the morning headlines, yet for globally mobile families they quietly shape pension income, property plans, school fees and everything that crosses a border. Each week we share the Market News from our partners at Agility Forex, the currency specialists we partner with for our currency exchange service, so you can see the macro picture that matters when your financial life spans more than one country.
In last week's edition markets had cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rise to approximately 38%, from around 85% in July. Seven days later the same source reports that markets increased those expectations again, and it publishes no new percentage. The Dollar was the strongest performer of the week. Sterling and the euro both fell against it, and the euro fell furthest. Here is what happened, and here is the week of 31 August 2026.
Key figures this week
Paratus note: the Provenance column states, for every row, where the figure came from and how it was published, because the difference between an exact value and an approximate one decides what a reader is entitled to conclude from it. This week that distinction does more work than usual: every closing level is published with the word "around", one weekly change is published only as a form of words, and the two inflation readings are the only exact market figures in the whole commentary. All market figures are as published by Agility Forex in the commentary reproduced further down this page. Rows marked "Not published" record what the commentary does not state, which is as much a part of the week as what it does.
Measure | Value | Provenance | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
GBP/USD at the close | Around 1.3526 | Published as an approximate value, qualified "around" | The qualifier is the source's and is retained everywhere it appears |
EUR/USD at the close | Around 1.1554 | Published as an approximate value, qualified "around" | The largest faller of the three pairs |
GBP/EUR at the close | Around 1.17 | Published as an approximate value, to two decimals only | The only pair published to two decimals rather than four |
GBP/USD weekly change | Approximately 0.71%, lower | Published as an approximate value | On a range the source gives as approximately 1.3526 to 1.3643 |
EUR/USD weekly change | "Just over 1%", lower | Published in words, as a bound | It is a bound, not a value, and is never converted to a number on this page |
GBP/EUR weekly change | Approximately 0.33%, higher | Published as an approximate value | Sterling finished higher against the euro |
GBP/EUR range | 1.1657 to 1.1721 | Published exactly | The only exactly published levels in the whole commentary |
US Core PCE, year on year, July | 3.3% | Published exactly | Unchanged. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation |
US headline PCE, year on year, July | 3.7% | Published exactly | Increased. Headline includes food and energy, which core strips out |
The Federal Reserve's inflation target | 2% | Published exactly | The target the source measures both readings against |
US employment change, previous month | -23k | Published exactly | Described by the source as disappointing |
US employment change, consensus for Friday | Around 50k | Published as an approximate value | Described as a modest increase in employment |
Chance of a September Federal Reserve rise | Not published | Not published | The commentary states only that expectations increased. No percentage appears anywhere in it |
Any central bank interest rate, in percent | Not published | Not published | No Federal Reserve, Bank of England or ECB rate level appears |
Any Treasury yield, at any tenor | Not published | Not published | Yields are described as supported. No number is attached |
Any UK data release for the review week | Not published | Not published | The commentary names no UK release at all for the week it reviews |
Any ECB rate, decision or inflation reading | Not published | Not published | The eurozone section carries no European figure of any kind |
Any purchasing managers' index value | Not published | Not published | Sixteen survey readings are scheduled in the week ahead and not one index value is given |
Downward revisions to earlier payroll figures | Stated, not quantified | Qualitative | The source notes revisions without giving any |
Scheduled releases in the week ahead | 64 | Paratus count of the calendar reproduced below | Against 43 the previous week. Twenty-six are Eurozone and twenty-seven are American |
How to read the figures on this page
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
Some of the numbers above are precise, most are qualified, and one is not a number at all. We separate them rather than blending them, because this week turns on exactly that distinction:
Published exactly. Core PCE at 3.3%, headline PCE at 3.7%, the 2% target, the -23k previous payroll reading and the 1.1657 to 1.1721 GBP/EUR range are all of this kind. Where a figure is exact we treat it as exact.
Published as approximate. All three closing levels carry the source's own word "around". So does the 50k payroll consensus, and so do the 0.71% and 0.33% weekly changes. We keep the qualifier attached to the number every single time it appears, including in the headline of this page.
Published as a bound, in words. The euro's weekly fall is given as "just over 1%". That is a form of words rather than a value, and it is not converted to a figure anywhere on this page. A page that turned it into 1.05% or 1.1% would be publishing a number that appears in no source.
Not published. The commentary publishes no probability, no rate, no yield and no survey index. Where that is the case we say so rather than estimating.
This week at a glance
The Dollar was the strongest performer of the week, on the source's own summary, as markets reassessed the outlook for US interest rates.
US inflation did not co-operate. Core PCE remained at 3.3% year on year in July and headline PCE increased to 3.7%. The source's judgement is that although the core reading was broadly in line with expectations, the data offered little evidence of inflation moving quickly towards the 2% target.
The address moved the market, not the data. The source reports that markets increased expectations of a September rise after the Jackson Hole address, supporting Treasury yields and the Dollar, and that the result was a sharp move lower in both GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
The euro took the largest hit. EUR/USD fell by just over 1%, which the source attributes to an interest-rate differential moving in favour of the Dollar rather than to anything happening in Europe.
Sterling had almost no domestic catalysts. The commentary names no UK data release for the week it reviews and says the pound was largely driven by developments in the US and eurozone.
GBP/EUR barely moved, ranging between 1.1657 and 1.1721 and finishing approximately 0.33% in Sterling's favour. The source draws the conclusion itself: the weakness was primarily a Dollar story rather than a significant shift in the underlying GBP/EUR outlook.
Everything in the week ahead points at Friday. The source names Non-Farm Payrolls above every other release and sets out both directions from it without committing to either.
The diary is the heaviest this series has covered, at 64 scheduled entries against 43 the previous week, with a UK Bank Holiday carrying two of them and Tuesday alone carrying twenty-seven.
The three weekly moves as the source publishes them, drawn as solid bars, with the movement the published levels would give shown beneath each as a dashed outline on the same scale. From the Paratus Wealth carousel for this week.
Market news, week commencing 31 August 2026
Market News - Tuesday 1st September 2026
The USD was the strongest performer last week, as markets reassessed the outlook for US interest rates following persistent inflationary pressures and a notably hawkish first Jackson Hole address from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. At the close of the week, GBP/USD was around 1.3526, EUR/USD around 1.1554 and GBP/EUR around 1.17. GBP/USD traded between approximately 1.3526–1.3643, representing a 0.71% weekly decline, while EUR/USD fell from a high/open of around 1.1685 to 1.1554, a move of just over 1%. GBP/EUR was considerably more subdued, ranging between 1.1657 and 1.1721, with Sterling finishing around 0.33% higher against the Euro.
USD
The key catalyst for USD strength came on Wednesday with the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation. Core PCE remained at 3.3% year-on-year in July, while headline PCE increased to 3.7%. Although the core reading itself was broadly in line with expectations, the data offered little evidence of inflation moving quickly towards the Fed's 2% target. This helped reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer, supporting the USD.
The USD then received another significant boost on Friday following Warsh's address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. His comments stressed that inflation remains the Fed's priority and that recent improvements in inflation had not yet provided sufficient evidence of a sustained move towards the 2% target. Markets subsequently increased expectations of a September rate hike, supporting US Treasury yields and the USD. The result was a sharp move lower in both GBP/USD and EUR/USD, with the latter experiencing the largest decline of the three major pairs.
EUR
The Euro was particularly sensitive to the USD's strength last week, with EUR/USD opening around its weekly high of 1.1685 before falling to approximately 1.1554. While European inflation and economic data remained relevant, the market was predominantly focused on the relative outlook for the ECB and Federal Reserve. With US inflation proving persistent and expectations of further Fed tightening increasing, the interest-rate differential moved in favour of the USD.
This resulted in EUR/USD falling by just over 1%, making it the largest mover of the three pairs. The move was particularly pronounced following Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, highlighting the extent to which EUR/USD remains driven by US monetary-policy expectations. The Euro also faced some uncertainty from ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns, although these were secondary to the US rate narrative. For Sterling clients, the relatively limited movement in GBP/EUR meant that the majority of Sterling's weekly weakness was attributable to the USD rather than a broad-based deterioration in GBP sentiment.
GBP
Sterling had relatively few major domestic catalysts last week and was therefore largely driven by developments in the US and Eurozone. GBP/USD opened around 1.3643, close to its weekly high, before moving lower following Wednesday's PCE release. The decline accelerated towards the end of the week as markets digested Warsh's comments, with GBP/USD closing around 1.3526, a weekly depreciation of approximately 0.71%. The combination of persistent US inflation and a more hawkish Fed outlook increased the relative attractiveness of the USD.
By contrast, GBP/EUR remained relatively stable, trading within a narrow 1.1657–1.1721 range and finishing approximately 0.33% higher in Sterling's favour. This suggests that last week's Sterling weakness was primarily a Dollar story, rather than a significant shift in the underlying GBP/EUR outlook.
Looking ahead: 31 August–4 September
The new week begins with the UK Bank Holiday on Monday 31 August, before attention turns to UK mortgage approvals on Tuesday and Construction PMI and a speech from BoE Governor Bailey on Friday. UK data is likely to have a more limited influence than US developments unless the releases materially alter expectations for Bank of England policy.
The Eurozone's key release will be the Core CPI Flash Estimate on Tuesday 1 September. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could support the Euro by reinforcing expectations that the ECB will need to maintain a restrictive stance.
The main focus, however, will be the US, with ISM Manufacturing and several labour-market indicators due during the week, culminating in Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. Following the previous month's disappointing -23k payroll reading and downward revisions to earlier figures, the market will be looking for evidence that the US labour market is stabilising. Current expectations are for a modest increase in employment, with the latest market consensus around 50k.
A stronger jobs report, particularly if accompanied by resilient wage growth and a stable or lower Unemployment Rate, would reinforce the hawkish shift seen following Warsh's speech and could support the USD further, putting renewed pressure on GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Conversely, another weak employment reading could reduce expectations of a September Fed hike, potentially allowing both Sterling and the Euro to recover against the USD.
In summary, the USD enters the new week with momentum following persistent US inflation and Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole message. The key question now is whether Friday's US employment data confirms or challenges that narrative.
Written by Ben Davies (Head of Dealing)
The published percentages and the published levels do not agree, and that is worth explaining
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
For two of the three pairs, the commentary quotes two levels and a percentage change in the same sentence, and the percentage is not what those levels give you.
GBP/USD. The source gives a range of approximately 1.3526 to 1.3643 and a weekly decline of 0.71%. Moving from 1.3643 to 1.3526 is a fall of about 0.86%.
EUR/USD. The source gives a high or open of around 1.1685 falling to 1.1554, and describes the move as just over 1%. Those two levels give about 1.12%.
GBP/EUR. The source gives a range and a change of approximately 0.33% and publishes no open and no close, so there is nothing to imply and no comparison to draw.
This is not an error to be fixed, and Paratus is not correcting Agility. A weekly percentage change is measured on a price series, at timestamps and on a fixing we do not hold. The levels quoted in a summary sentence are a range and an approximation, not an open and a close taken at the same moments. The two things are measuring different quantities and there is no reason to expect them to match.
The reason to state it at all is that a reader, or a machine, will otherwise do the subtraction. Someone who lifts 1.3643 and 1.3526 from this page and computes a change gets 0.86%, which is a bigger fall than the one the source printed and a figure that appears in no publication anywhere. Stating the gap in words forecloses that.
The rule this sets, and it applies to every figure on this page: where a percentage is published, the percentage is the figure. No page here derives a competing one, and nothing above says which number is right, because the question does not arise.
The reversal, one week apart
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
Last week's edition of this briefing reported that markets had cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rise to approximately 38%, from around 85% in July. This week the same source reports that markets increased those expectations again following the Jackson Hole address.
It publishes no new percentage, so this page gives none either. "Increased" is a direction. It has no magnitude attached to it in the source, and any number this page attached to it would be ours rather than anybody's.
That is worth sitting with, because it is the whole value of reading a series rather than a snapshot. Seven days took a September rise from less likely than not, at approximately 38%, back to a direction nobody has yet put a number on. A market-implied expectation is what traders are pricing. It is not a decision by the Federal Reserve, the source records no decision, and none is implied here.
The two published probabilities on one nought to one hundred per cent scale, with a solid arrow for the fall the previous edition reported and a dashed band that leaves the 38% marker, heads right and fades out with no arrowhead and no end value, because no destination is published. From the Paratus Wealth carousel for this week.
Two measures, one target
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
This is the first week in some time in which the commentary publishes hard inflation figures rather than describing them, and both are exact.
"Core" means food and energy are stripped out. Those two move sharply for reasons that have little to do with the wider economy, so removing them gives a steadier read on underlying price pressure. The commentary identifies Core PCE as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, which is why the market watches it rather than the more familiar consumer price index.
Core held at 3.3% while headline rose to 3.7%. Because headline includes the two components core strips out, the divergence points mathematically at food or energy. The commentary offers no cause for it, so none is offered here.
A reading in line with expectations can still be bad news for a central bank. Nothing in July's core figure surprised anyone. That is exactly the problem the source identifies: an unchanged 3.3% is a rate sitting well above a 2% target and refusing to move, which is a different fact from a rate that missed a forecast.
Core and headline PCE drawn to one scale from zero against the published 2% target. The two vertical distances are arithmetic performed by Paratus on the published values and are drawn dashed and labelled derived. From the Paratus Wealth carousel for this week.
Everything points at Friday
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
The source names one release above all others, and the reason it matters is that the two figures involved sit on opposite sides of zero.
The previous month's employment change was -23k, stated exactly and described by the source as disappointing. The latest market consensus for Friday is around 50k, published as an approximate value and described as a modest increase in employment.
No page here states the distance between them as a figure, because a difference computed from an approximation is an approximation that looks exact. The source also notes downward revisions to earlier figures, without giving any.
The source sets out both directions and commits to neither:
If the report is stronger, particularly with resilient wage growth and a stable or lower unemployment rate, the source says this would reinforce the hawkish shift and could support the Dollar further, putting renewed pressure on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
If the report is weaker, the source says another weak employment reading could reduce expectations of a September rise, potentially allowing both Sterling and the euro to recover against the Dollar.
Both are conditional scenarios set out in the source, presented in both directions. Neither is a forecast, and nothing on this page says which will happen.
Key economic data this week
The calendar below is reproduced from Agility Forex UK, including the names of scheduled speakers exactly as listed there. Counts are Paratus counts of that calendar.
Monday 31st August
ALL G20 Meetings
EU German Prelim CPI m/m
Two entries. A UK Bank Holiday, and the lightest day of the week.
Tuesday 1st September
ALL G20 Meetings
EU German Retail Sales m/m
EU Spanish Manufacturing PMI
EU Italian Manufacturing PMI
EU French Final Manufacturing PMI
EU German Final Manufacturing PMI
EU Final Manufacturing PMI
EU Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
EU Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EU Italian Prelim CPI m/m
EU Unemployment Rate
UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y
UK Nationwide HPI m/m
UK Final Manufacturing PMI
UK M4 Money Supply m/m
UK Mortgage Approvals
UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m
US FOMC Member Barr Speaks
US Final Manufacturing PMI
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
US ISM Manufacturing Prices
US JOLTS Job Openings
US Construction Spending m/m
US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
US Omdia Total Vehicle Sales
US API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Twenty-seven entries, the heaviest day of the week and of any week this series has covered. Both of the source's named Tuesday items are here: the Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate and UK mortgage approvals.
Wednesday 2nd September
EU German Buba President Nagel Speaks
EU French Gov Budget Balance
EU Spanish Unemployment Change
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
US Factory Orders m/m
US Crude Oil Inventories
US Beige Book
Seven entries. Private payrolls and the Federal Reserve's survey of conditions across its districts, two days before the payrolls report.
Thursday 3rd September
EU Spanish Services PMI
EU Italian Services PMI
EU French Final Services PMI
EU German Final Services PMI
EU Final Services PMI
EU PPI m/m
EU Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
EU French 10-y Bond Auction
UK Final Services PMI
US Challenger Job Cuts y/y
US Unemployment Claims
US FOMC Member Waller Speaks
US Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
US Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
US Trade Balance
US Final Services PMI
US ISM Services PMI
US Natural Gas Storage
US FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
Twenty entries, including three of the week's four Federal Reserve speakers.
Friday 4th September
EU German Factory Orders m/m
EU Italian Retail Sales m/m
EU Retail Sales m/m
UK Construction PMI
UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
US Average Hourly Earnings m/m
US Non-Farm Employment Change
US Unemployment Rate
Eight entries. Three of them are the figures the source names together: the employment change, wage growth and the unemployment rate.
Total: 64 scheduled entries.
The shape of this week is worth seeing before it happens. It is the heaviest diary this series has covered, at 64 entries against 43 the previous week, and the load is wildly uneven: a UK Bank Holiday carrying two scheduled entries is followed by twenty-seven on a single Tuesday. Twenty-six of the sixty-four are Eurozone releases and twenty-seven are American, which is the first week in this series in which the United States outnumbers the eurozone. Four Federal Reserve speakers appear in one week, one on Tuesday and three on Thursday, with the Beige Book between them. And Friday, at eight entries, is the third lightest day by count and the one the commentary singles out above every other.
What a week like this means for globally mobile families
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
One currency strengthened against the other two. Whether that helped or hurt depends on which currency your money arrives in and which one it leaves in, and for a cross-border household those are rarely the same.
If your income is in Dollars. The week moved your way against both currencies expatriate households most commonly spend in. A Dollar salary, pension or rental income met sterling and euro costs on better published terms at the close than at the open. Those are approximate levels published by the source, not the rate available on any given day, and the source is explicit that a weak employment report could reverse the shift.
If your costs are in Dollars. The same move works against you. Dollar school fees, a mortgage or living costs met from a sterling or euro income cost more at the end of the week than the start, by approximately 0.71% for Sterling and just over 1% for the euro on the source's own figures. Over a year of regular transfers that is not noise.
If your money moves between sterling and euros, very little happened, and that is the useful finding. GBP/EUR traded inside a 1.1657 to 1.1721 range and finished approximately 0.33% in Sterling's favour. The source says plainly that Sterling's weakness was a Dollar story rather than a shift in the GBP/EUR outlook, so a week of alarming Dollar headlines should not be read as a Sterling problem.
If your pension is paid in one currency and spent in another. This is the position most expatriate retirees are actually in, and it is the one where a currency move compounds rather than passing through once. A retirement income does not get to wait for a better rate. What can be planned is the timing and the structure of conversions, and how much of a liability is matched to the currency it is denominated in. The rate itself cannot be planned by anyone.
Nothing in this section is a recommendation to convert, to hold or to delay, and no view is offered on where any rate goes next. It is a description of who is affected by the week the source reports, so the right question gets asked at the right time. The decision belongs with your own adviser and your own circumstances.
How Paratus Wealth can help
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
Currency is one part of a cross-border plan, and it is rarely the part that is planned first. Paratus Wealth works with globally mobile families across the whole of it:
Currency and cost-of-living planning, including our currency exchange service with Agility Forex, for people who move money between currencies regularly rather than once.
Protection and life cover and that remains valid when you move country.
Savings and investmentsstructured for someone who may not retire in the country they are working in.
Retirement planning and cashflow modelling, which is where a currency exposure stops being a market question and becomes an income question.
Pension review, SIPPs and QROPS for pensions left behind in one country and drawn in another.
UK Inheritance Tax planning for people whose estate is exposed to a system they no longer live under.
Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom.
If any of this week's movement touches a decision you were already weighing, contact our team and we will talk it through.
Related reading
Attribution and disclaimer:
Market News written by Ben Davies (Head of Dealing), Agility Forex. Shared by Paratus Wealth with permission. The commentary above is general market information provided by Agility Forex and is reproduced verbatim. It is for information only, does not constitute financial, investment or currency advice, and should not be relied upon as such. Figures are as published by Agility Forex UK and cover the market week to Friday 28 August 2026. All three closing levels are published with the word "around" and are shown as approximate throughout; they are not prices you could have transacted at, and market levels change continuously. Where the source publishes a change in words, such as "just over 1%", it is reproduced in words and is never converted to a figure. The comparisons drawn between a published percentage and the published levels, and the distances between the two inflation readings and the 2% target, are arithmetic performed by Paratus on published values and are labelled as derived; they are not corrections and no alternative figure is proposed. Outcomes described for forthcoming releases are conditional scenarios set out in the source, presented in both directions, and are not forecasts. No forecast of any rate, level or price is offered on this page. Counts of the economic calendar are Paratus counts of the calendar reproduced above. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom. Any UK references in this commentary relate to cross-border exposure for people living outside the UK. Currency and investment values can fall as well as rise. This page is also subject to the full Paratus Wealth regulatory disclaimer shown in the site footer. To talk through your own circumstances, contact our team.
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