Weekly Market News, 6 July 2026: A Weak US Jobs Report Puts the Dollar on the Back Foot
Currency moves rarely make the morning headlines, yet for globally mobile families they quietly shape pension income, property plans, school fees and everything that crosses a border. Each week we share the Market News from our partners at Agility Forex, the currency specialists we partner with for our currency exchange service, so you can see the macro picture that matters when your financial life spans more than one country.
Here is the week of 6 July 2026.
This week at a glance
The US Dollar came under pressure. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have more room to ease policy later this year. US Treasury yields fell and the Dollar weakened.
The jobs number that moved markets. June Non-Farm Payrolls added just 57,000 against 114,000 expected, with the previous month revised lower to 129,000. Unemployment held at 4.2%.
Sterling was the quiet winner. GBP/EUR reached a one-year high of 1.1701, while GBP/USD recovered circa 1.8% to a high of 1.3384, largely tracking the Dollar rather than domestic data.
Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% from 3.2%, and markets now price a 96% probability that the ECB holds interest rates in July.
The commentary that follows is this week's Market News from Agility Forex, reproduced in full. It is general market information for globally mobile families, not financial advice.
Market overview
The US: a softer labour market (USD)
The US Dollar finished the week under pressure after a weaker-than-expected US labour market report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater scope to ease monetary policy later this year. Meanwhile, the euro found support following softer but still relatively resilient Eurozone inflation data, while sterling traded in relatively narrow ranges as the UK calendar remained light.
The week's most important release came from the US labour market. The June US Non-Farm Payrolls report came in significantly weaker than expected, with the economy adding just 57,000 jobs, well below market expectations of 114,000. Adding to the softer outlook, the previous month's payroll figure was revised lower to 129,000, suggesting the labour market has been losing momentum. Despite the slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
The weaker-than-expected employment report prompted investors to increase expectations that the Federal Reserve may be able to reduce interest rates later this year if inflation continues to moderate. US Treasury yields moved lower while the US Dollar weakened following the release.
On the manufacturing side, the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI showed that US factory activity remained in expansion territory but slowed slightly during June (53.3 vs a previous reading of 54). Although manufacturing continues to expand, businesses highlighted ongoing cost pressures and softer demand. The decline in the Prices Paid component suggested some easing in inflationary pressures, although input costs remain historically elevated.
The Euro finds support (EUR/USD)
Flash inflation data across the Eurozone pointed towards a continued moderation in price pressures, with the headline reading posting at 2.8% YoY versus a previous figure of 3.2%. The decline was primarily driven by easing energy prices, while underlying services inflation remained relatively sticky. Although inflation continues to move closer to the European Central Bank's target, policymakers are expected to remain cautious until there is further evidence that domestic price pressures are easing sustainably. As a result, probabilities have increased to 96% of there being no change to interest rates in July's monetary policy meeting.
EUR/USD extended higher throughout the week, supported primarily by broad-based US Dollar weakness rather than significant euro strength. The softer US payrolls report shifted market expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook, while moderating Eurozone inflation was viewed as reducing the need for further ECB tightening rather than signalling economic deterioration.
Going forward, EUR/USD is likely to remain highly sensitive to incoming US economic data and changes in Federal Reserve rate expectations. With markets increasingly pricing the possibility of policy easing later this year, any further signs of slowing US growth could continue to support the pair. Conversely, stronger US data may quickly reverse recent dollar weakness.
The UK: a quiet week and a steady political backdrop (GBP)
Sterling largely tracked broader US Dollar movements last week, with the absence of significant UK economic releases leaving external drivers as the dominant influence.
GBP/EUR reached a one-year high of 1.1701, whilst there was a circa 1.8% recovery versus the US Dollar (high of 1.3384).
Markets continue to monitor Bank of England commentary closely as policymakers balance persistent domestic inflation against signs that UK economic growth remains subdued.
UK political developments also remained in focus for currency markets, although their impact on sterling was relatively muted. Attention has centered on the emergence of Andy Burnham as the likely successor to Sir Keir Starmer, with investors closely watching his commitment to fiscal discipline and economic stability. In recent speeches, Burnham has reiterated that any future government under his leadership would adhere to Labour's fiscal rules, a message that has been broadly welcomed by financial markets as it reduces concerns over significant fiscal expansion or unfunded spending commitments.
Equally significant for investors was Burnham's confirmation that he has no intention of calling an early general election, with the next UK general election expected to take place in 2029. Removing the prospect of an early election has reduced a potential source of political uncertainty, helping to underpin confidence in UK assets and limiting any risk premium being priced into sterling.
Rates and geopolitics
Geopolitical developments continued to influence market sentiment. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East helped keep energy prices contained after recent volatility, reducing immediate inflation concerns and supporting broader risk appetite. Lower oil prices also contributed to softer inflation readings across much of the Eurozone.
The week ahead
Following last week's busy calendar, the coming week is expected to be considerably quieter, with no major top-tier economic data releases scheduled.
The main events to watch include:
Tuesday
US ISM Services PMI
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks
Wednesday
FOMC Meeting Minutes
With a relatively light economic calendar, market attention is likely to focus on central bank communication and any geopolitical developments. Investors will scrutinise the FOMC minutes for further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following last week's weaker payrolls report, while Governor Bailey's comments may provide additional guidance on the Bank of England's interest rate path.
Overall, in the absence of major economic releases, FX markets may remain driven by changes in interest rate expectations, geopolitical headlines and broader market sentiment.
Key economic data this week
The key data to look out for this week is as follows:
Monday 6th July
EU Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
EU Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)
EU Sentix Investor Confidence
EU Producer Price Index (MoM)
EU Producer Price Index (YoY)
EU Retail Sales (MoM)
EU Retail Sales (YoY)
US S&P Global Composite PMI
US ISM Services Employment Index
US ISM Services New Orders Index
US ISM Services PMI
US ISM Services Prices Paid
EU ECB's Schnabel Speech
US Fed's Waller Speech
EU ECB's President Lagarde Speech
UK BoE's Mann Speech
EU ECB's Lane Speech
Tuesday 7th July
EU Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)
EU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
UK Financial Stability Report
US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
UK BoE's Mann Speech
Wednesday 8th July
EU ECB's Escrivá Speech
US FOMC Minutes
Thursday 9th July
EU Trade Balance s.a.
EU Eurogroup Meeting
UK BoE's Breeden Speech
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Fed's Williams Speech
US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)
Friday 10th July
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
What this means for globally mobile families
For globally mobile families, currency is rarely just a number on a screen. The level of GBP/EUR or GBP/USD shapes the real value of a pension paid in one currency and spent in another, the cost of a home abroad, school fees, and how far retirement income stretches. A week in which a single jobs number turns the Dollar lower, and lifts Sterling to a one-year high against the Euro, is exactly the kind of week that can move those numbers.
Here is how Paratus Wealth can help. The themes in this week's briefing connect directly to the planning questions we hear, and to the services we provide:
Moving money across borders. With Sterling stronger against the Euro and recovering against the Dollar, the timing and structure of a transfer can make a real difference. Our currency exchange service with Agility Forex is built for exactly these transfers, and it is often the simplest place to start a wider conversation.
Pensions held in one currency, life lived in another. Currency and interest rate moves sit underneath almost every cross-border retirement plan. Our retirement planning service, with options such as a SIPP, a QROPS and a pension review, looks at how that risk fits your wider picture.
Investing through shifting rate expectations. A market rethinking when interest rates will fall is exactly when portfolio structure matters. Our savings and investment approach is built around long horizons rather than single weeks.
Protecting the plan and the people in it. Income, health and life protection, including life insurance, helps keep a plan intact when markets and circumstances move.
The wider cross-border picture. Cashflow modelling shows how rate and currency moves could play out over time, and UK inheritance tax planning addresses the estate questions that often sit alongside them for globally mobile families.
Paratus Wealth helps expatriates plan around exactly this kind of cross-border complexity, from currency and cost-of-living planning to pensions, investments, protection and estate planning, so that short-term market moves are met with a long-term plan rather than a reaction. None of the above is financial advice. It is general information to help you frame the right questions. If any of it is part of your situation, you are welcome to speak with Paratus.
Related reading
Market News written by Daniel Ralph (FX Dealer), Agility Forex. Shared by Paratus Wealth with permission. The commentary above is general market information provided by Agility Forex and is reproduced verbatim. It is for information only, does not constitute financial, investment or currency advice, and should not be relied upon as such. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom. Any UK references in this commentary relate to cross-border exposure for people living outside the UK. Currency and investment values can fall as well as rise. This page is also subject to the full Paratus Wealth regulatory disclaimer shown in the site footer. For guidance specific to your circumstances, contact our team.
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