Weekly Market News, 29 June 2026: A Leadership Change in Westminster and a Dollar Leading Every Major
Currency moves rarely make the morning headlines, yet for globally mobile families they quietly shape pension income, property plans, school fees and everything that crosses a border. Each week we share the Market News from our partners at Agility Forex, the currency specialists we partner with for our currency exchange service, so you can see the macro picture that matters when your financial life spans more than one country.
Here is the week of 29 June 2026.
This week at a glance
A change at the top. The week opened with Sir Keir Starmer's resignation. Sterling found brief support on hopes of a smooth transition, but the gains proved short-lived.
The US Dollar is the standout major of 2026, up around 3% so far this year, as markets price in further Federal Reserve tightening and US inflation pushes above 4% for the first time in three years.
The majors tested fresh lows. GBP/USD touched a seven-month low near 1.3140 and EUR/USD a 13-month low near 1.1340 before steadying, while the US Dollar Index reached its highest level since May 2025.
A data-heavy week ahead: Eurozone flash inflation, central bankers at the ECB Forum, and US Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday.
Market overview
The UK: a leadership change and softer data (GBP)
Political developments in the UK and continued US Dollar strength dominated markets last week. The week began with Sir Keir Starmer's resignation on Monday morning. While significant, the announcement was not a major surprise as pressure had been mounting for some time, including from within his own cabinet. The initial market reaction saw Sterling strengthen modestly, although it remained within recent trading ranges.
Economic data was relatively light across the major economies following the busy calendar of the previous week. The UK Services PMI disappointed, falling to 48.7 from 49.3, its weakest reading since January 2023. A reading below 50 signals contraction, which is concerning given the importance of the services sector to the UK economy. The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which combines both services and manufacturing activity, also declined to 49.4 from 49.7.
Politics remains a key focus. The current favourite, and so far the only serious challenger, to replace Starmer is Andy Burnham. Sterling initially found some support as markets began to price in a relatively straightforward leadership transition rather than a prolonged leadership contest. Attention now turns to potential cabinet changes under the new leadership and, in particular, who will become Chancellor. Wes Streeting is currently viewed as the favourite, a prospect which appears supportive for Sterling. By contrast, an appointment such as Ed Miliband would likely be viewed less favourably by financial markets. Investors will be closely watching any policy signals from the incoming administration, particularly regarding government spending, taxation and fiscal policy.
The US Dollar leads every major (USD)
The US Dollar continued to outperform and is the strongest-performing major currency at the halfway point of the year, up approximately 3% compared with the same period last year. The USD has been supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance following last week's meeting, with markets now pricing in around 38bps of additional rate hikes this year compared with approximately 24bps for the Bank of England.
In the United States, both Manufacturing and Services PMI readings remained comfortably above 50, indicating continued economic expansion. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7 from 55.1, while Services PMI increased to 51.3 from 50.7. Inflation data released on Thursday showed US inflation rising further in May, moving above 4% for the first time in three years. This has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver further interest rate increases later this year. Markets are now pricing in one rate hike as early as September, with roughly a 50% probability of a second increase before year-end.
The Euro and the ECB (EUR/USD)
The latest PMI surveys delivered mixed results. Manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 51.3 from 51.6 but remained above the 50 threshold, indicating continued expansion. Services PMI improved modestly to 48.9 but remained in contraction territory.
Earlier this month, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, with markets currently expecting one further increase before year-end. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir reiterated that policymakers remain focused on incoming economic data, particularly June inflation figures, while continuing to assess any secondary inflationary effects from the conflict in the Middle East. He acknowledged that the economic impact of the conflict would not disappear overnight and suggested the ECB's work on inflation is not yet complete.
The Euro weakened against the US Dollar as expectations for ECB policy continued to diverge from those of the Federal Reserve. Moves in this pair were primarily driven by broad US Dollar strength.
Rates and geopolitics
By comparison, the Bank of England is expected to adopt a more cautious "wait-and-see" approach. BoE policymaker Alan Taylor commented that an "extended hold" in interest rates remained the appropriate response to current inflationary pressures.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has continued to support higher energy prices. Any meaningful progress towards a resolution would likely ease inflationary pressures, although the timing of any de-escalation remains uncertain. As a result, geopolitical developments continue to influence both market sentiment and central bank expectations.
Where the majors finished
The US Dollar dominated trading throughout the week.
GBP/USD tested a seven-month low at 1.3140 before failing to break above 1.3280.
EUR/USD tested a 13-month low at 1.1340 before closing the week back above 1.1400.
The US Dollar Index climbed to 101.69, its highest level since May 2025.
The week ahead
Focus now turns to central bank speakers and key inflation and labour market data in the week ahead. In the United Kingdom, the calendar includes Mortgage Approvals, final Q1 GDP (expected unchanged at 0.6% q/q), final Manufacturing and Services PMI, and Governor Bailey speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. In the Eurozone, final Manufacturing and Services PMI are due alongside a flash CPI estimate (expected 3.0%, down from 3.2%), with ECB President Lagarde also speaking at the ECB Forum.
In the United States, the week builds through Conference Board Consumer Confidence, the ADP Employment Report, Manufacturing and Services PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday and the Unemployment Rate, before US markets close for a bank holiday on Friday 3 July.
Key economic data this week
The key data to look out for this week is as follows:
Monday 29th June
EU Business Climate
EU Consumer Confidence
EU Economic Sentiment Indicator
EU ECB's President Lagarde Speech
UK BoE's Pill Speech
Tuesday 30th June
EU Retail Sales (MoM)
EU Retail Sales (YoY)
EU Unemployment Change
EU Unemployment Rate s.a.
EU ECB's Elderson Speech
EU ECB's Schnabel Speech
EU Consumer Price Index (MoM)
EU Consumer Price Index (YoY)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
EU ECB's Cipollone Speech
EU ECB's Lane Speech
UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
UK BoE's Breeden Speech
US Housing Price Index (MoM)
US Chicago PMI
US Consumer Confidence
US JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday 1st July
EU HCOB Manufacturing PMI
EU ECB's Cipollone Speech
EU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
EU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
EU ECB's Lane Speech
EU ECB's President Lagarde Speech
UK BoE's Governor Bailey Speech
US ADP Employment Change
US Fed's Chair Warsh Speech
US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
Thursday 2nd July
EU Unemployment Rate
EU ECB's Elderson Speech
EU ECB's Cipollone Speech
UK BoE's Mann Speech
US Challenger Job Cuts
US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Labor Force Participation Rate
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US U6 Underemployment Rate
US Unemployment Rate
US Fed's Daly Speech
US Factory Orders (MoM)
Friday 3rd July
EU HCOB Composite PMI
EU HCOB Services PMI
EU ECB's President Lagarde Speech
EU ECB's Nagel Speech
UK BoE's Governor Bailey Speech
US Independence Day (US Bank Holiday)
What this means for globally mobile families
For globally mobile families, currency is rarely just a number on a screen. The level of GBP/EUR or GBP/USD shapes the real value of a pension paid in one currency and spent in another, the cost of a home abroad, school fees, and how far retirement income stretches. A week in which a US Dollar at multi-year highs meets a leadership change at home is exactly the kind of week that can move those numbers.
Here is how Paratus Wealth can help. The themes in this week's briefing connect directly to the planning questions we hear, and to the services we provide:
Moving money across borders. With the Dollar this strong against the Pound and the Euro, the timing and structure of a transfer can make a real difference. Our currency exchange service with Agility Forex is built for exactly these transfers, and it is often the simplest place to start a wider conversation.
Pensions held in one currency, life lived in another. Currency and interest rate moves sit underneath almost every cross-border retirement plan. Our retirement planning service, with options such as a SIPP, a QROPS and a pension review, looks at how that risk fits your wider picture.
Investing through volatility. A first half dominated by one currency, and rising inflation expectations, is exactly when portfolio structure matters. Our savings and investment approach is built around long horizons rather than single weeks.
Protecting the plan and the people in it. Income, health and life protection, including life insurance, helps keep a plan intact when markets and circumstances move.
The wider cross-border picture. Cashflow modelling shows how rate and currency moves could play out over time, and UK inheritance tax planning addresses the estate questions that often sit alongside them for globally mobile families.
Paratus Wealth helps expatriates plan around exactly this kind of cross-border complexity, from currency and cost-of-living planning to pensions, investments, protection and estate planning, so that short-term market moves are met with a long-term plan rather than a reaction. None of the above is financial advice. It is general information to help you frame the right questions. If any of it is part of your situation, you are welcome to speak with Paratus.
Related reading
Market News written by Colette Archer (FX Dealer), Agility Forex. Shared by Paratus Wealth with permission. The commentary above is general market information provided by Agility Forex and is reproduced verbatim. It is for information only, does not constitute financial, investment or currency advice, and should not be relied upon as such. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom. Any UK references in this commentary relate to cross-border exposure for people living outside the UK. Currency and investment values can fall as well as rise. This page is also subject to the full Paratus Wealth regulatory disclaimer shown in the site footer. For guidance specific to your circumstances, contact our team.
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