Weekly Market News, 5 October 2026: A Softer US Jobs Report, and Two Sets of Central Bank Minutes This Week
Currency moves rarely make the morning headlines, yet for globally mobile families they shape pension income, property plans, school fees and everything that crosses a border. Each week we share the Market News from Agility Forex, the currency specialists we partner with for our currency exchange service, so you can see the macro picture that matters when your financial life spans more than one country.
Our last edition looked ahead to two central bank decisions. This week's commentary, from Max Potts, looks back on the week of 28 September to 2 October, when a much softer US jobs report gave sterling and the euro some ground back against the dollar into Friday. UK growth came in slightly ahead of forecasts, and eurozone inflation came in stronger. This week brings no rate decisions, only the minutes and accounts of last month's meetings. As always, we keep what has been published apart from what is still to come, so you can read each number for what it is.
Key figures this week
Provenance compiled by Paratus Wealth for every figure in this week's commentary. The figures sit in three tables because they are of three different kinds. The first holds what was published about last week. The second holds what is scheduled for this week. The third lists what the commentary does not publish. Every qualifier the source attaches to a figure is carried inside the cell with that figure, so the two cannot become separated. All market figures are as published by Agility Forex in the commentary reproduced further down this page.
Table 1. Published outcomes and levels: the week of 28 September to 2 October 2026
Measure | Value | Provenance | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
US non-farm payrolls, September | +29k (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | Against 133k in August |
US non-farm payrolls, August, revised | 133k, revised down from 162k (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | The previous month's revision |
US unemployment rate | 4.2%, up from 4.1% (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | Described as worse than expected, with no expected figure given |
UK GDP, quarter on quarter | 0.1% (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | Slightly ahead of forecasts, which the commentary gives in words only |
UK GDP, year on year | 0.2% (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | Also slightly ahead of forecasts |
Eurozone CPI, month on month and year on year | 0.4% on both measures (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | Reproduced as printed |
Eurozone HICP, year on year | 0.6% (published outcome, exact) | Published exactly | The harmonised index of consumer prices |
GBP/USD, last week | Open 1.3245, high 1.3313, low 1.3180, close 1.3243 (levels from last week) | Published exactly | Closed two ticks below its open, derived by Paratus |
GBP/EUR, last week | Open 1.1628, high 1.1785, low 1.1621, close 1.1768 (levels from last week) | Published exactly | Closed 140 ticks above its open, derived by Paratus |
EUR/USD, last week | Open 1.1386, high 1.1382, low 1.1214, close 1.1252 (levels from last week, as printed) | Published exactly, but the open sits above the high | A week's high cannot sit below its own open. Set out in its own section below |
EUR/USD on Friday, last week | Around 1.1260 (published as approximate, a level from last week) | Published as approximate | After the US employment figures |
Table 2. Scheduled for the week of 5 October 2026. These are not outcomes.
Event | Value | Date | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
Federal Reserve minutes, September meeting | No figure published | Wed 7 Oct | The commentary says the minutes should give an indication of whether officials lean towards another rise or a hold |
European Central Bank meeting accounts, September | No figure published | Thu 8 Oct | The commentary reports some speculation about an October rather than a December rise |
US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, October preliminary | No figure published | Fri 9 Oct | Named in the calendar only |
Outcomes described for forthcoming releases are conditional scenarios set out in the source, not forecasts.
Table 3. What this week's commentary does not publish
Measure | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
An expected figure for any release this week | Not published | No expectation is given for any of the forty-five calendar entries, and we have not supplied one from elsewhere |
A probability for any central bank decision | Not published | Markets are described as "leaning towards" a Federal Reserve hold, with no percentage attached |
Any current central bank interest rate | Not published | No level is given for the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England or the European Central Bank |
A figure for Thursday's US inflation release | Given in words only | Described as "softer-than-expected" |
Expected values for US unemployment and UK GDP | Given in words only | "Worse than expected" and "slightly ahead of forecasts". Paratus Wealth does not convert either into a figure |
A time for any release this week | Not published | The calendar gives no release times |
Which of EUR/USD's open and high is correct | Not published | The commentary does not say, and we propose no alternative figure |
Scheduled entries in the week ahead | 47 rows as printed, 45 distinct | A Paratus Wealth count of the calendar reproduced below. Two rows are printed twice |
The week's releases, one at a time
Paratus framing (not Agility). Each entry below is self-contained and states its own date, its own source and whether it is an outcome, a level or a scheduled event.
US non-farm payrolls. The US added 29k jobs in September 2026, against 133k in August, and August's figure was itself revised down to 133k from the 162k first reported. Paratus Wealth reproduces these as published outcomes, reported by Agility Forex on 5 October 2026.
US unemployment rate. US unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in the September report, which the commentary describes as worse than expected. Paratus Wealth reproduces this as a published outcome, reported by Agility Forex on 5 October 2026.
UK GDP. The UK economy grew 0.1% quarter on quarter and 0.2% year on year, slightly ahead of forecasts, in the release published in the week of 28 September 2026. Paratus Wealth reproduces this as a published outcome, reported by Agility Forex on 5 October 2026.
Eurozone inflation. Eurozone consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month and 0.4% year on year, and the harmonised index rose 0.6% year on year, in releases published in the week of 28 September 2026. Paratus Wealth reproduces these as published outcomes, reported by Agility Forex on 5 October 2026.
Federal Reserve minutes. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting are scheduled for Wednesday 7 October 2026. Agility Forex reports that markets are leaning towards the Federal Reserve holding rates at its next meeting. Paratus Wealth reproduces this as a description of how markets were leaning, not a decision, and with no probability attached.
European Central Bank meeting accounts. The accounts of the European Central Bank's September meeting are scheduled for Thursday 8 October 2026. Agility Forex reports some speculation that the ECB could move as early as October rather than waiting until December. Paratus Wealth reproduces this as speculation reported by the source, not a forecast.
Outcomes described for forthcoming releases are conditional scenarios set out in the source, not forecasts.
How to read the figures on this page
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
This week's figures come in a few different kinds, and it helps to know which is which before reading on.
Published outcomes. The US payrolls and unemployment figures, UK GDP and the eurozone inflation readings have all happened. Where a figure is a published outcome, we treat it as one.
Levels from last week. Every exchange rate on this page describes the week of 28 September to 2 October. A level from last week, not a current price, and never the rate anyone would receive today.
Published as approximate. EUR/USD at around 1.1260 on Friday is the source's own approximation, and it keeps its "around" wherever it appears.
Scheduled, with no figure published. The minutes, the accounts and the US sentiment readings are dates, not numbers. The commentary sets out no expectation for any of them.
Derived. Where we subtract one published figure from another, we say so, and we label the result derived. It is our arithmetic, not a figure the source published.
Not published. Where the commentary gives no figure, we say so rather than estimating one.
Paratus Wealth does not forecast any of the outcomes described below. Where the source sets out what could happen next, we reproduce it as the source's own commentary, not as a Paratus view on what will happen.
This week at a glance
A much softer US jobs report. The US added 29k jobs in September, against 133k in August, and unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Markets lean towards a Federal Reserve hold. Together with softer US inflation, the commentary says the jobs data has started to cool expectations of another rise. That is how markets were leaning, not a decision.
Sterling and the euro won some ground back into Friday. Both had been under pressure against the dollar earlier in the week.
UK growth came in slightly ahead of forecasts. GDP grew 0.1% on the quarter and 0.2% on the year.
Eurozone inflation came in stronger. The harmonised measure rose 0.6% on the year, and the commentary says this could add pressure on the European Central Bank.
This week brings minutes, not decisions. The Federal Reserve's on Wednesday 7 October and the European Central Bank's accounts on Thursday 8 October.
One printed level cannot sit where it is printed. EUR/USD's open is printed above its own high. We set out what we can and cannot say about it below.
Paratus Wealth works with people who are already resident outside the United Kingdom, and does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom.
Last week's printed open, high, low and close for three pairs, each on its own scale. EUR/USD's open is drawn outside its printed range, where the printed figures place it. From the Paratus Wealth carousel for this week.
Market news, week commencing 5 October 2026
The commentary below is reproduced word for word from Agility Forex UK. Direct contact details have been omitted and the section headings are formatted by Paratus; the text is otherwise unaltered.
Market News - Monday 5th October 2026
Overview
Sterling and the euro remained under pressure against the US dollar during the week, although both currencies recovered some ground into Friday following a significantly weaker-than-expected US employment report. The key market themes were elevated US Treasury yields, expectations surrounding further Federal Reserve tightening, renewed energy-price pressures and their implications for inflation, alongside changing expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank
GBP/USD
Open: 1.3245 High: 1.3313
Close: 1.3243 Low: 1.3180
GBP/EUR
Open: 1.1628 High: 1.1785
Close: 1.1768 Low: 1.1621
EUR/USD
Open: 1.1386 High: 1.1382
Close: 1.1252 Low: 1.1214
Above: the FX Market Update graphic supplied by Agility Forex for this week, reproduced as supplied. Its levels match the commentary's table, including EUR/USD's open of 1.1386 above its high of 1.1382; the section after this commentary explains why both cannot be right. Its percentage changes do not appear in the commentary, and its line that markets "continue to price in further rate hikes" differs from the commentary's own reading that markets are leaning towards a Federal Reserve hold. They are Agility's artwork, and they are not a Paratus view or a forecast.
USD
The big event for the dollar last week was the September non-farm payrolls report. The US added just 29k jobs, a weak result compared with 133k in August. Unemployment also came in worse than expected, rising from 4.1% to 4.2%, which helped cable rebound above 1.32.
Together with Thursday's softer-than-expected inflation figures, the jobs data has started to cool expectations of another Fed hike in October. The numbers suggest the US economy is losing momentum, and markets are now leaning towards the Fed holding rates at its next meeting. GBP/USD opened and closed at 1.3245 and 1.3243.
GBP
It was a quiet week for sterling on the data front. The main release was UK GDP, which came in slightly ahead of forecasts at 0.1% quarter on quarter and 0.2% year on year. Energy prices remained an important part of the equation, with higher oil prices increasing concerns over the inflation outlook. Sterling nevertheless struggled to make meaningful progress against a dollar supported by elevated Treasury yields and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase. After GBP/EUR opened at 1.1628, it rallied to a high of 1.3313, dropped to a low of 1.3180 and closed at 1.3243.
EUR
The main focus for the euro was inflation, with two releases in the middle and towards the end of the week. CPI rose 0.4% both month on month and year on year, while the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) was up 0.6% year on year.
The stronger inflation figures could increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike rates early in October and maintain a restrictive monetary stance.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.1260 on Friday after the USD came under pressure following weaker than expected US employment figures. The previous months employment figures were revised down to 133k from 162k. Previous months revisions therefore are reinforcing signs of a weaker dollar.
The week ahead
The minutes from September's FOMC meeting are out on Wednesday and should provide an indication into whether Fed officials are leaning towards another hike or a hold on interest rates.
The ECB publishes the minutes of its September meeting on Thursday. Markets will be watching for any signal on timing, with some speculation that the ECB could move as early as October rather than waiting until December.
Written by Max Potts (FX Dealer)
[Direct contact details omitted.]
One printed level that cannot sit where it is, and a sterling paragraph that joins two pairs
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
We read the commentary's levels against each other, and two things in it do not fit. Neither changes the story of the week, and both are worth setting out plainly so a printed figure is read for what it is.
EUR/USD's open sits above its own high. The table prints EUR/USD's open at 1.1386 and its high at 1.1382. A week's high is the highest level traded that week, and the open is one of those levels, so the high cannot sit below the open. One of the two figures is not what was meant. The commentary does not say which, and we do not guess: we have reproduced both exactly as printed, drawn the open outside the printed range where the figures place it, and we propose no alternative figure. For the same reason we have not worked out how far EUR/USD moved from its open to its close. The close of 1.1252, the low of 1.1214 and Friday's level of around 1.1260 sit comfortably with the rest of the commentary.
The sterling paragraph joins two pairs in one sentence. It reads that "After GBP/EUR opened at 1.1628, it rallied to a high of 1.3313, dropped to a low of 1.3180 and closed at 1.3243." The 1.1628 is GBP/EUR's open from the table. The other three figures are GBP/USD's high, low and close from the same table. GBP/EUR's own high, low and close were 1.1785, 1.1621 and 1.1768. Read against the table, the sentence describes two pairs, not one.
The graphic above repeats the EUR/USD open and high exactly as the table prints them. We have reproduced it as supplied, because it is Agility's artwork and we have not altered it. We would simply ask you to read those two figures alongside this section rather than in place of it.
A softer US jobs report gave sterling and the euro some ground back
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
For most of the week, sterling and the euro were under pressure against the dollar, which was supported by elevated US Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. The commentary's reading is that Friday's US jobs report changed the tone.
The US added 29k jobs in September, against 133k in August, and August's figure was itself revised down from 162k. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Taken with Thursday's softer-than-expected inflation figures, the commentary says the data has started to cool expectations of another Federal Reserve rise in October, and that markets are now leaning towards a hold at the next meeting. That is a description of how markets were leaning, not a decision, and the commentary attaches no probability to it.
Sterling had a quiet week on the data front. UK GDP grew 0.1% on the quarter and 0.2% on the year, slightly ahead of forecasts, while higher oil prices kept attention on the inflation outlook. GBP/USD closed at 1.3243, two ticks below its open of 1.3245, a derived difference. GBP/EUR closed at 1.1768, 140 ticks above its open of 1.1628, also derived.
In the eurozone, consumer prices rose 0.4% and the harmonised measure rose 0.6% on the year. The commentary says the stronger figures could increase pressure on the European Central Bank to raise rates. EUR/USD rebounded to around 1.1260 on Friday, after a low for the week of 1.1214.
This week, two sets of minutes and no decisions
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
This is a quieter week for decisions. No central bank in the commentary's diary sets rates, and the commentary publishes no expected figure for anything in it. What it does carry is two looks back at September's meetings.
The Federal Reserve's minutes, Wednesday 7 October. The commentary says the minutes should give an indication of whether officials are leaning towards another rise or a hold. Markets were leaning towards a hold after Friday's data. The minutes describe a meeting that has already happened, and we offer no view on what they will show.
The European Central Bank's accounts, Thursday 8 October. Markets will be watching for any signal on timing, and the commentary reports some speculation that the ECB could move as early as October rather than waiting until December. That is speculation the source reports, not a forecast.
The wider diary. Eighteen policymaker speeches are scheduled across the week, eleven of them from the European Central Bank, four from the Federal Reserve and three from the Bank of England. Friday brings the first US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations readings for October.
Outcomes described for forthcoming releases are conditional scenarios set out in the source, not forecasts. No view is offered here on what any of them will show.
Monday and Tuesday carry most of the week
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
Paratus Wealth counted the economic calendar reproduced below and found 47 rows as printed, with two rows printed twice, so 45 distinct scheduled entries across the week. Twenty-four of the week's forty-five entries fall on Monday and Tuesday.
Monday 5 October. Fourteen entries, the busiest day of the week: services surveys for the eurozone and the US, eurozone producer prices and investor confidence, and four policymaker speeches. One survey row is printed twice.
Tuesday 6 October. Ten entries, including eurozone retail sales and factory orders, a US employment measure, and five policymaker speeches.
Wednesday 7 October. Five entries, led by the Federal Reserve's minutes, with eurozone industrial production. One speech row is printed twice.
Thursday 8 October. Nine entries, including the European Central Bank's meeting accounts, US jobless claims and five policymaker speeches.
Friday 9 October. Seven entries, including four US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations readings.
The calendar gives no release times this week. Where we describe a day as busy, that is a description of the diary rather than a view on how markets will respond.
Key economic data this week
Reproduced from the Agility Forex commentary. 47 rows as printed, 45 distinct: two rows are printed twice in the source and are marked where they fall. Officials are shown by role. The source gives no release times this week.
Monday 5th October
EU ECB policymaker speech
EU HCOB Composite PMI (Sep)
EU HCOB Services PMI (Sep)
EU ECB policymaker speech (a second)
EU HCOB Composite PMI (Sep) (printed twice in the source, counted once)
EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct)
EU ECB policymaker speech (a third)
EU Producer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
EU Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
EU ECB policymaker speech (a fourth)
US S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep)
US ISM Services Employment Index (Sep)
US ISM Services New Orders Index (Sep)
US ISM Services PMI (Sep)
US ISM Services Prices Paid (Sep)
Tuesday 6th October
EU Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Aug)
EU Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (Aug)
UK BoE policymaker speech
EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
EU ECB policymaker speech
EU ECB policymaker speech (a second)
US Fed policymaker speech
US Fed policymaker speech (a second)
Wednesday 7th October
EU ECB policymaker speech
EU Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Aug)
EU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Aug)
EU ECB policymaker speech (a second)
EU ECB policymaker speech (the second, printed twice in the source, counted once)
US FOMC Minutes
Thursday 8th October
EU Trade Balance s.a. (Aug)
EU Eurogroup Meeting
US Fed policymaker speech
UK BoE policymaker speech
EU ECB policymaker speech
EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
US Initial Jobless Claims
UK BoE policymaker speech (a second)
US Fed policymaker speech (a second)
Friday 9th October
EU EcoFin Meeting
EU ECB policymaker speech
EU ECB policymaker speech (a second)
US Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (Oct) Prel
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct) Prel
US UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct) Prel
US UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation (Oct) Prel
What a week like this can mean for globally mobile families
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
For many of the families we work with, currency is part of everyday life: a pension paid in one currency and spent in another, school fees abroad, a home in a country you no longer live in. A quieter week, with no decisions due, is a comfortable moment to look at how those pieces fit together.
If your income arrives in US dollars. Last week's jobs report was much softer than August's, and the commentary says markets now lean towards the Federal Reserve holding rates. Wednesday's minutes are the next thing markets will be watching. Nobody can know in advance what that means for a dollar income.
If your costs are in euros. Eurozone inflation came in stronger, and the commentary reports some speculation about an earlier European Central Bank rise. Thursday's accounts may say more about timing. That is the source's reading, not a forecast.
If your pension is paid in one currency and spent in another. This is where currency matters most for many families living abroad, because the effect repeats every month rather than passing through once. The rate itself cannot be planned, but the timing and structure of conversions can, and so can how much of your spending is matched to the currency it is paid in.
If you live abroad on a sterling income, or still hold UK assets. UK growth came in slightly ahead of forecasts, and GBP/USD ended last week almost where it began. Three Bank of England policymakers speak this week.
Nothing in this section is a recommendation to convert, to hold or to wait, and no view is offered on where any rate goes next. It is a guide to the week the commentary describes, so you can ask the right questions at the right time.
If your money lives in more than one currency, it can be reassuring to have a plan that already takes the exchange rate into account. Many of the families we work with find that a short conversation about the timing and structure of their conversions brings real peace of mind.
Paratus Wealth works with people who are already resident outside the United Kingdom. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom.
How Paratus Wealth can help
Paratus framing (not Agility). General information, not financial advice.
Currency is one part of a cross-border plan, and it works best when it is considered alongside everything else rather than on its own. Paratus Wealth works with globally mobile families across the whole picture:
Currency and cost-of-living planning, including our currency exchange service with Agility Forex, for people who move money between currencies regularly rather than once.
Retirement planning and cashflow modelling, where the currency of your income becomes part of the plan itself.
Pension review, SIPPs and QROPS for pensions built up in one country and drawn in another.
Savings and investments structured for someone who may not retire in the country they are working in.
Protection and life cover and life insurance that stays with you when you move country.
UK Inheritance Tax planning for families whose estate still connects to the UK system.
Tax planning across two systems, for households whose income, assets and residence do not all sit in the same country.
Paratus Wealth works with people who are already resident outside the United Kingdom. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom.
What happens if you get in touch. You send us a short note about your situation and where you live. One of our Financial Advisers reads it personally and usually comes back to you within one working day. The first conversation is thirty minutes, it costs nothing, and there is no obligation to do anything afterwards.
If any of this week's calendar touches a decision you were already thinking about, book a 30-minute cross-border conversation.
Related reading
Attribution and disclaimer:
Market News written by Max Potts (FX Dealer), Agility Forex. Shared by Paratus Wealth with permission. The commentary above is general market information provided by Agility Forex and is reproduced word for word, with direct contact details omitted. It is for information only, does not constitute financial, investment or currency advice, and should not be relied upon as such. Figures are as published by Agility Forex UK. The US payrolls and unemployment figures, UK GDP and the eurozone inflation readings are published outcomes from the week of 28 September to 2 October 2026. Every exchange rate on this page is a level from that week, not a current price. EUR/USD's open and high are reproduced exactly as printed although they cannot both be correct; no alternative figure is proposed. The differences between open and close for GBP/USD and GBP/EUR are Paratus arithmetic on the published levels and are labelled as derived. The Federal Reserve "lean" is the source's description of market positioning, not a decision, and carries no probability; the European Central Bank timing is speculation reported by the source. Outcomes described for forthcoming releases are conditional scenarios set out in the source, not forecasts. No forecast of any rate, level or price is offered on this page. Counts of the economic calendar are Paratus counts of the calendar reproduced above, and officials in it are shown by role. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom. Any UK references in this commentary relate to cross-border exposure for people living outside the UK. Currency and investment values can fall as well as rise. This page is also subject to the full Paratus Wealth regulatory disclaimer shown in the site footer. To talk through your own circumstances, contact our team.
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