Weekly Market News, 13 July 2026: Geopolitics, Oil and the Return of the Safe-Haven Dollar
Currency moves rarely make the morning headlines, yet for globally mobile families they quietly shape pension income, property plans, school fees and everything that crosses a border. Each week we share the Market News from our partners at Agility Forex, the currency specialists we partner with for our currency exchange service, so you can see the macro picture that matters when your financial life spans more than one country.
This week was a reminder that a single headline can outweigh a whole calendar of data. Here is the week of 13 July 2026.
This week at a glance
Geopolitics took control of the markets. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, and concern over the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil higher and sent investors back into the safe-haven US Dollar.
A week of two halves. Sterling started firm as a softer US jobs picture weighed on the Dollar, with cable briefly back above 1.3400. It then reversed, settling back within the familiar 1.33 to 1.34 range.
Oil did the driving. Crude climbed sharply, with WTI approaching 80 US Dollars per barrel, on concern over the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil supply passes.
Sterling stayed capped. UK political uncertainty over the shape of a new government and the appointment of a new Chancellor limited the Pound, even during periods of Dollar weakness.
Current levels: GBP/USD 1.3387, GBP/EUR 1.1725, EUR/USD 1.1421.
Market overview
The commentary that follows is this week's Market News from Agility Forex, written by Carolyn Clare (FX Dealer), reproduced in full. The section headings are ours, added for readability; the text within them is Agility's own, word for word.
After a relatively quiet start to the week, global markets quickly reminded us that geopolitics can often outweigh economic fundamentals.
The optimistic open
The week initially opened with a more optimistic tone as investors returned following the US Independence Day holiday. A softer-than-expected US employment report released at the end of the previous week increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the end of its tightening cycle. This weighed on the US Dollar and allowed Sterling to strengthen, with cable briefly pushing back above the 1.3400 level.
However, that optimism proved short-lived.
Geopolitics takes control
Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran rapidly became the dominant theme for financial markets. Following a series of military exchanges and growing concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz through which around 20% of the world's oil supply passes investors quickly reassessed risk.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The immediate reaction was seen in the energy markets, with crude oil prices climbing sharply and WTI approaching $80 per barrel. While higher oil prices naturally impact energy costs, they also carry wider implications for inflation and central bank policy. If energy prices remain elevated, inflationary pressures may prove more persistent than previously expected, reducing the scope for central banks to lower interest rates in the near term.
Market Weekly Summary produced by Agility Forex UK, week commencing 13 July 2026.
The Dollar's safe-haven bid
This shift in sentiment supported the US Dollar throughout the second half of the week. Investors moved back towards traditional safe-haven assets, reversing much of Sterling's earlier gains and pushing Cable back below the 1.3400 level, where it currently continues to trade within the familiar 1.33 -1.34 range.
Sterling and UK politics
Political uncertainty in the UK also continued to influence Sterling. Ongoing speculation surrounding the composition of Andy Burnham's expected government and the appointment of a new Chancellor has limited investor confidence, preventing the Pound from fully capitalising on periods of Dollar weakness.
When data takes a back seat
Although several important economic releases including US Initial Jobless Claims, China's inflation data and the ECB Meeting Minutes provided further insight into the global economy, they ultimately took a back seat to geopolitical developments. Once again, headlines rather than scheduled economic data proved to be the biggest driver of market volatility.
Current market levels
GBP/USD: 1.3387
GBP/EUR: 1.1725
EUR/USD: 1.1421
With inflation, central bank policy and geopolitical developments all competing for investors' attention, another volatile week could lie ahead for currency markets.
The week ahead
Looking ahead, attention now turns to another busy week for financial markets.
The standout release will undoubtedly be US CPI inflation, which is expected to provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. Investors will also be monitoring US Producer Price Inflation (PPI), UK GDP, US Retail Sales, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and a new round of major US bank earnings.
For businesses with upcoming foreign exchange requirements, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, changing interest rate expectations and key economic data releases is likely to keep volatility elevated. While exchange rates have remained within relatively familiar ranges, the speed at which sentiment has shifted over the past week is another reminder of how quickly market conditions can change.
Key economic data this week
The key data to look out for this week is as follows:
Monday 13th July
US Fed's Bowman Speech
US Fed's Waller Speech
EU ECB's Schnabel Speech
UK BoE's Pill Speech
US Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)
Tuesday 14th July
UK BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)(JUN)
US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average
US Consumer Price Index (MoM) & (YoY)(JUN)
US Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) & (YoY)(JUN)
EU ECB's President Lagarde Speech
US Fed Chair Warsh Testifies
US Fed's Barr Speech
US Fed's Goolsbee Speech
US Fed's Cook Speech
US Fed's Bowman Speech
UK BoE's Governor Bailey Speech
Wednesday 15th July
EU ECB's Panetta Speech
EU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(MAY)
UK BoE's Pill Speech
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (JUL)
US Producer Price Index (MoM) & (YoY)(JUN)
US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) & (YoY)(JUN)
US Fed's Williams Speech
US Fed Chair Warsh Testifies
EU ECB's Nagel Speech
US Fed's Cook Speech
US Fed's Beige Book
Thursday 16th July
US Fed's Musalem Speech
UK Gross Domestic Product (MoM)(MAY)
UK Industrial Production (MoM)(MAY)
UK Manufacturing Production (MoM)(MAY)
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (JUL)
US Retail Sales (MoM)(JUN)
US Retail Sales Control Group (JUN)
US Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(JUN)
US Fed's Logan Speech
US Fed's Schmid Speech
Friday 17th July
US Fed's Jefferson Speech
EU Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) & (YoY)(JUN)
EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(JUN)
EU ECB's Cippollone Speech
US Building Permits (MoM)(JUN)
US Housing Starts (MoM)(JUN)
US Industrial Production (MoM)(JUN)
US Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (JUL)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (JUL)
US UoM 1-year & 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (JUL)
What this means for globally mobile families
For globally mobile families, currency is rarely just a number on a screen. The level of GBP/EUR or GBP/USD shapes the real value of a pension paid in one currency and spent in another, the cost of a home abroad, school fees, and how far retirement income stretches.
A week in which a geopolitical headline can flip the Dollar from soft to strong, and pull Sterling back from its highs, is exactly the kind of week that can move those numbers, often faster than any planned data release.
Here is how Paratus Wealth can help. The themes in this week's briefing connect directly to the planning questions we hear, and to the services we provide:
Moving money across borders. When sentiment can turn in a single session, the timing and structure of a transfer matters. Our currency exchange service with Agility Forex is built for exactly these transfers, and it is often the simplest place to start a wider conversation.
Pensions held in one currency, life lived in another. Currency and interest rate moves sit underneath almost every cross-border retirement plan. Our retirement planning service, with options such as a SIPP, a QROPS and a pension review, looks at how that risk fits your wider picture.
Investing through shifting rate expectations. A market rethinking when, and whether, interest rates will fall is exactly when portfolio structure matters. Our savings and investment approach is built around long horizons rather than single weeks.
Protecting the plan and the people in it. Income, health and life protection, including life insurance, helps keep a plan intact when markets and circumstances move.
The wider cross-border picture. Cashflow modelling shows how rate and currency moves could play out over time, and UK inheritance tax planning addresses the estate questions that often sit alongside them for globally mobile families.
Paratus Wealth helps expatriates plan around exactly this kind of cross-border complexity, from currency and cost-of-living planning to pensions, investments, protection and estate planning, so that short-term market moves are met with a long-term plan rather than a reaction. None of the above is financial advice. It is general information to help you frame the right questions. If any of it is part of your situation, you are welcome to speak with Paratus.
Related reading
Market News written by Carolyn Clare (FX Dealer), Agility Forex. Shared by Paratus Wealth with permission. The commentary above is general market information provided by Agility Forex and is reproduced verbatim. It is for information only, does not constitute financial, investment or currency advice, and should not be relied upon as such. Paratus Wealth does not provide services to, and does not market to, residents of the United Kingdom. Any UK references in this commentary relate to cross-border exposure for people living outside the UK. Currency and investment values can fall as well as rise. This page is also subject to the full Paratus Wealth regulatory disclaimer shown in the site footer. For guidance specific to your circumstances, contact our team.
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